Predicting the arrival of alien species remains a big challenge, which is assumed to be a consequence of the complexity of the invasion process. Here, we demonstrate that spreading of alien marine species can be predicted by a simple model using only global shipping intensities, environmental variables, and species occurrence data. We provide species lists of the next potentially invading species in a local habitat or species causing harmful algal blooms with their associated probability of invasion. This will help to improve mitigation strategies to reduce the further introduction of alien species. Although this study focuses on marine algae, the model approach can be easily adopted to other taxonomic groups and their respective drivers of invasion
Ecological communities are often characterised by many species occupying the same trophic level and competing over a small number of vital resources. The mechanisms maintaining high biodiversity in such systems are still poorly understood. Here, we …
The analysis of small recurrent substructures, so called network motifs, has become a standard tool of complex network science to unveil the design principles underlying the structure of empirical networks. In many natural systems network nodes are …
Trade plays a key role in the spread of alien species and has arguably contributed to the recent enormous acceleration of biological invasions, thus homogenizing biotas worldwide. Combining data on 60‐year trends of bilateral trade, as well as on …
Resource competition is a fundamental interaction in natural communities. However, little remains known about competition in spatial environments where organisms are able to regulate resource distributions. Here, we analyse the competition of two …